ISU’s Roth: ‘May well be a shortage of federal animal officials’
Avian influenza cases have fallen significantly as the weather warmed, but producers and researchers alike may not be as well prepared for the upcoming flu season.
In 2015, the stay of the H5N1 virus spanned one winter before effectively disappearing once summer came.
A severe lack of federal intervention resulted in the culling of over 50 million birds nationwide along with new found strategies to curb the spread of the virus that would prepare states to respond to future outbreaks.
That was until 2022 when avian influenza broke out once again and — unlike the outbreak the decade before — has consistently come back after summer lulls, now making it endemic. Much like all flu viruses, the H5 strain of avian influenza has shown an ability to thrive in cold weather.
Jim Roth, professor emeritus of veterinary microbiology and preventive medicine and former director of Food Security and Public Health at Iowa State University, told the Times Pilot that it is hard to predict how impactful the virus will be this flu season.
“The virus is very adaptable, so we don’t know exactly what it’s going to look like this fall,” Roth said. “But there are concerns about the available federal workforce to deal with it.”
In the first few months of 2025, Iowa reported six cases of H5N1 in commercial poultry flocks which has resulted in the culling of millions of birds.
At the same time, thousands of employees with federal agencies like the U.S. Department of Agriculture were laid off en masse. President Donald Trump claimed it was part of a larger effort to “realign the government” and limit wasteful spending on positions considered “non-essential.”
The widespread firings hit the USDA’s National Centers for Animal Health in Ames where some 50 employees were escorted off of the campus.
Now, with the limited staffing, Roth worries that the return of the virus will strain those left working on animal diseases at the USDA.
“If and when it does come back — it most likely will be back—there’s a lot fewer people working in the USDA on animal diseases,” he explained.
He also noted that many employees who were assigned to work on avian influenza are now being pulled to work on an emerging threat of New World Screwworm that is moving northward.
According to the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, NWS has broken out in Central America and Mexico, raising concerns about possible spread to North America.
”If there is a heavy fall of influenza in poultry and cattle, there may well be a shortage of federal animal officials,” Roth said of the availability of federal workers.
As a result of the warmer weather, only one case of avian influenza has been reported in a commercial flock in recent months.
Vaccine efforts stagnate
In turn, Roth says that the push to develop and approve vaccines has let up. Something that could prove to be problematic should the virus return with notable strength.
”With the incidence so low, there’s not much pressure to start vaccinating,” he said. “We’ll see what it looks like this fall and winter, but now it may be that the migratory birds are starting to develop enough immunity to the virus that it won’t be quite as prevalent.”
U.S. officials have long been weary about vaccinating poultry flocks against avian influenza over fears of potential impact to trade supplies.
Roth previously told the Times Pilot that vaccinating poultry may lead to the loss of export markets as a vaccine could keep birds healthy while hiding the virus and continuing its spread.
In February, the USDA “conditionally approved” a vaccine by animal health company Zoetis for use on poultry.
Roth also previously said that vaccines to treat cattle infected with the virus were seeing promising results from test trials.
But vaccinating poultry is a much larger undertaking that has led to testing of alternative methods of administering them, such as aerosols.
Meanwhile, the late-stage development of a vaccine against H5 avian influenza in humans by Moderna was effectively halted in May by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
According to the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), HHS terminated a nearly $600 million award in January for Moderna’s candidate mRNA vaccine against avian influenza and other pre-pandemic candidate vaccines.
Moderna received the contract for the vaccine development last July that offered a base award of $176 million. The additional $590 million was granted in the final days of the Biden administration as cases rose among agriculture workers and the need for a vaccine became greater.
But the contract was reevaluated by HHS soon after Trump took office.
Moderna has since stated they plan to explore alternatives for the late-stage development of an H5 avian influenza vaccine.
The cut to the vaccine development could mean the loss of a potential stockpile should the virus begin to pose a health risk for humans.
Currently, the Center for Disease Control still contests that the virus poses a low risk to public health.
The virus has infected 70 individuals nationwide and resulted in the death of a Louisiana man.
“The CDC has been paying attention to it and they continually say it’s a low risk for humans. Because, even in Asia, where there have been a few people dying from it — and we’ve had one die in the U.S. — there’s been no human to human transmission,” Roth explained. “So if it did become transmissible, human to human, like COVID was, that would be a very dramatic change. We hope that never happens.”
Rollins strategy shows some success
During her first visit to Iowa in March following her confirmation, U.S Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins boasted about her ‘five-pronged strategy’ she introduced in February to curb the effects of avian influenza.
Rollins’ prioritized decreasing the price of eggs and claimed that, within the first month of implementation, egg prices dropped nearly 60%.
As of March 17, the wholesale price of eggs fell to $4.83, down from the peak of nearly $9 reported on Feb. 28.
Since then, prices have continued to fall. In a release issued by the USDA on June 26, Sec. Rollins claimed that wholesale eggs prices have dropped 64% and retail prices 27%.
“When President Trump entered office, the cost of eggs was at a record high, seriously denting consumers’ wallets after years of awful inflation. On my first day as Secretary, we got to work to implement a five-pronged strategy to improve biosecurity on the farm and lower egg prices on grocery store shelves,” Sec. Rollins said. “The plan has worked, and families are seeing relief with egg prices driving food deflation in the April Consumer Price Index.”
Imports of eggs from foreign markets have “helped bolster domestic supply,” thus driving down prices for consumers.
According to the June 26 release, the U.S has imported more than 26 million shell eggs since January.
Reporting from Iowa Capital Dispatch suggests that the import figure for the first half of 2025 is nearly ten times higher than that of the imports for the same period of 2024.
From January to June 2024, the U.S. imported around 2.36 million shell eggs and over 9.2 million egg products according to the USDA’s egg market reports. Imports in the same period this year have already surpassed 26 million shell eggs and 14 million egg products.
“When the prices are high, the industry works really hard to increase production. So the industry has been very responsive to the need, and now we’re in the lull and we just have to wait and see,” Roth said of the price changes.
Increased biosecurity support at the federal level has also proven to be another successful prong in Sec. Rollins’ response plan.
In the spring, the USDA began offering free biosecurity audits for farmers or producers that want their current practices evaluated. The agency also offered to pay up to 75% of the cost of a major audit of a facility conducted by federal employees.
According to the June release, over 900 biosecurity assessments have been completed with Iowa farmers accounting for 162 of said assessments.
“While we are proud that over 900 biosecurity assessments have been conducted to date, resources remain available, and we are urging poultry farmers of all sizes to get your assessments done today before a potentially challenging fall,” Rollins stated in the release.
Roth also hopes farmers and producers alike will continue to be diligent with their biosecurity measures pending the upcoming flu season.
“People shouldn’t let down their guard, the poultry producers need to continue to really emphasize biosecurity.”
